As a “young” Nuffield Scholar I feel extremely privileged to have been asked to provide a summary of the conference. My back of the envelope calculation puts the collective agricultural experience of everyone gathered here today at in excess of 4,600 years and in such distinguished company it is an honour to address you.

A testament to the calibre of the speakers is that each and every topic has produced robust debate and questioning. You could not help but notice the noise level at each intermission, it was loud, very loud, and is a reflection of the interest created by each of the six sessions.

The common themes heard throughout the conference have been:

1. Population growth and affluence will drive market demand;

2. Additional productive agricultural land is limited;

3. Energy demand and policy have had, and will continue to have, a significant influence on agriculture;

4. Global trade mechanisms must be efficient if they are to deliver agricultural progress and productivity;

5. Technology has delivered great advances for agriculture, but we need to bring the wider community along with us if technology is to continue providing benefits to all mankind;

6. Science should not be viewed in absolute terms of “good” and “bad”. We should

determine an appropriate balance between the risks and benefits of adopting a particular scientific application and how it might then be used;

7. Good people are critical to the success of every business and you get the staff you deserve.

The key points we heard were:

• Asia is resource constrained, especially with land and increasingly water. China and India have 42% of the world’s population and only 15% of the available arable land;

• Agriculture’s capacity to supply markets is also being impacted by bio-fuels, energy costs and climate change;

• Key drivers of demand in developing economies are life style, health and wellbeing;

• Food demand is forecast to double over the next 50 years.

• The world’s food and fuel needs will far exceed current available farming land;

• Throughout the world there is limited new farmland that can be utilised without critical environmental impacts;

• Only three regions have the potential to develop significant additional agricultural land. These are the USA, Brazil and sub Saharan Africa;

• We are faced, therefore, with a decision: “do we take more farming land from nature or use biotechnology”;

• Our world trade framework under the World Trade Organisation is slow and cumbersome and has stalled agricultural progress and productivity gains;

• In coming years we are likely to see increased protectionism between trading nations as they look to secure their own national interests.

(For a country such as Australia which exports 60% of it’s agricultural produce, this does not bode well);

• It has also been suggested that it is not the responsibility of the developed world to feed the developing world, but to enable them to feed themselves;

• To do this we will need a vibrant agricultural research and extension base together with people, profit and passion. I am sure that you will agree that these qualities are epitomised by Mariano Bosch, whose presentation on farming in Argentina and his business model was inspirational.

I am halfway through my scholarship year having travelled through the Americas and Europe, and will shortly visit Asia. What I have seen so far is that the issues we face as an industry are the same throughout the world - many of which have been raised throughout today’s conference.

These are; climate change, food and water security, increased input costs, an aging rural population, a growing rural-urban disconnect, production constraints due to limited new farmland, land prices driven by proximity to urban centres, and an urgent need for research and development.

Each country, however, chooses to address these issues with some differences, influenced in large part by their political systems but also by their historical and cultural legacies.

Few participants here today would deny that our industry is faced with challenges and we are required to manage significant risks: climate risk, production risk and financial risk. John F. Kennedy said, “history will not accept difficulty as an excuse”…so what do we need to do to ensure we can participate in global production agriculture?

We need good science, good economics and good policy. I know that as an industry we are often frustrated by failures in these three critical areas. But I am confident that with the experience, leadership and demonstrated innovative capacity of Nuffield

Scholars that we are well placed to drive and embrace the necessary changes to take

advantage of the exciting times ahead for agriculture.

Sam Archer, 2008 Scholar

Conference Papers

Alex A. Avery Part 1

Alex A. Avery Part 2

Dr Patrick Wall